Forex Exchange Morning Report 5-8-2009

Foreign currency Morning Report Currency risk his tone remained firm last night thanks to the support, but mixed U.S. data. The ADP payroll report produced a small negative surprise, hurting investor sentiment capital and the S & P500 at the opening, but the factory orders report later easily exceed the consensus, help revive the closure of the risks in New York. The S & P 500 closed down 0.3% but, importantly, yield 4.4% of banks index. Oil was little changed, but the terrain over 1.1% copper. U.S. Treasury Bonds rebounded with the data, the 10yr note 8bp higher on the day. EUR varied between 1.4355 and 1.4445, a disappointing retail sales report little damage, but has recovered from the upper bound. A series of strong UK data pushed above 1.7043 GBP. JPY hovered around its recent 95 the area of consolidation. We note the margin retailers aggressively cut short JPY. The reaffirmation of Moody's Baa1 rating of Mexico increased the weight of 1.3%. AUD rebounded with the data, and extremes during the night of 0.8450 and 0.8360, but it's about where it closed at 0.8405 yesterday in Sydney. NZD remained relatively stable, perhaps supported by the residual feeling of the previous rise in prices of milk powder, and remains around 0.6730. The result of the milk kept the pressure on AUD / NZD overnight, reaching a low of 1.2443. U.S. 47.0 non-manufacturing ISM fell to 46.4 in July. This reflected a drop of almost 4 pts in the business activity index, fell by 2 pts in jobs and a small drop in orders, with displacement of inventories and supplier deliveries. There is a surprising result for us, as the jump had looked over June, the upward trend in this survey is still intact. U.S. 371k ADP private payrolls in July. This compares with a drop of 463k in June, suggesting that Friday's payrolls report also showed a slower rate of job loss. However, ADP is not a reliable guide to the payrolls, though as in June, which seems to understand the proper and we hope all payrolls to show an improvement even bleaker (forecast WBC-270K), given the statistical distortions related to the auto sector hiring. Orders for U.S. factory increase of 0.4% in June. A drop of 2.7% in nondurable goods (mainly due to energy prices) to offset the decline of 2.2% known in the durable goods component. Inventories at factories fell 0.8%. Retail sales fell euro zone by 0.2% in June, its sixth decline in seven months, pointing to a further contraction likely in Q2 household spending. The UK industrial production rose 0.5% in June, the strongest monthly increase since October 2007 and one of only four monthly increases since then. This result adds weight to the view that the British economy may have bottomed out sometime in the second quarter. Surveys of the United Kingdom point to improve the economy. Consumer confidence nationally in July rose 59 to 60, the Halifax reported a house price by 1.1% last month break, and the British Retail Consortium saw only a modest discount in July, with price growth of the year tends to decrease 0.7% to 0.5% a year. Most impressive was the increase from 51.6 to 53.2 in the services PMI, which aims to accelerate growth in this sector. Outlook today should be emphasized twice Employment Reports billing New Zealand and Australia. In New Zealand, a number higher than 5.7% may be dismissed as historical data (which would also have to be worse than expected 5.9% Bank of New Zealand to have implications for monetary policy), but somewhat less likely provoke a response in the USD bullish. We favor the kiwi higher in the coming sessions, initially to around 0.6900, with limited temporary fixes to 0.6650. Today's events Country NZ Q2 latest HLFS Employment Forecast -1.1% -0.4% Q2 unemployment HLFS Aus 5.00% 5.70% Change in July-21.4K-20K Jobs in July Unemployment rate 5.80% 6.00 U.S. initial jobless% Claims w / e 1 / 8 584k 590K July Chain Store Sales -5.1% year% - Jpn Main Index 76.9 79.7 June Eur ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.00% June Factory Orders Ger 4.40% -2, 2% UK BoE Rate Decision 0.50% 0.50% May June Building Permits 14.80% -3.2% Westpac Institutional Bank http://www.wib.westpac.co.nz/ All customers please note that this information has been prepared without considering your objectives, financial situation or needs. As a result, it is necessary, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide services by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac branch. 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